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Florida Skilled Nursing - Market Intelligence

Florida · FL · September 2026 · October 2025 rate file

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Florida Skilled Nursing: Market Intelligence Report
September 8, 2026  ·  Exclusively SNF Sell-Side Advisors · Since 2014

3G Healthcare Real Estate is a sell-side advisory firm working only in skilled nursing facility real estate. This report is the Florida ownership and operating picture as we track it, drawn from CMS Provider Information, federal ownership filings, county property records, published Medicaid rate files, and our own resolution work.

Every figure below describes the market in aggregate; nothing here is specific to any single owner or property.

694
facilities
84,517
licensed beds
89%
avg occupancy
50%
showing distress
Medicaid Rate Snapshot
$308
Florida average daily rate
$310
statewide median

Florida carries a median Medicaid daily rate of $310 across 596 rated facilities, 86 percent of the buildings we track in the state, with the middle half of the market between $297 and $322 a day. The distribution is tight, which usually means a cost-capped methodology holding most buildings in a band. Rates are effective October 2025.

PercentileMedicaid daily rate
10th$275
25th$297
Median (50th)$310
75th$322
90th$334
Range $237 to $375 across 596 rated facilities; rates effective October 2025.
CMS Ownership Analytics · 694 FL SNFs
OwnershipFacilitiesAvg ★Staffing ★Nurse turnover1★ / 5★CMS fines
For-Profit5543.173.1243%75 / 117$14.8M
Non-Profit1273.564.0634%14 / 46$3.2M
Government134.234.6236%1 / 8$299K

Florida skilled nursing is 80 percent for-profit by facility count: 554 of 694 buildings, averaging 3.17 stars overall and 3.12 on staffing. The balance is 127 non-profit, 13 government. Government buildings rate highest at 4.23 stars and for-profit lowest at 3.17. Ownership type as CMS records it describes the license holder. The real estate behind it is frequently a different party, and that is the layer we resolve.

Quality, Staffing & Distress Signals
33%
rated one or two stars
18
special focus / candidate

Florida averages 3.26 stars overall across 694 facilities and 84,517 licensed beds. Average occupancy runs 89 percent, which is the number that decides whether a building services its debt. Quality splits at the bottom: 231 facilities (33 percent) rate one or two stars overall, 90 of them one star. Special Focus status or candidacy covers 18 of them. CMS fines on the current record total $18.3M across 276 facilities. Total nurse turnover averages 41.4 percent. Counting any facility that carries at least one of a one- or two-star overall rating, Special Focus status or candidacy, CMS fines on the current record, or a distressed-title flag from county records, 346 of 694 buildings show a distress signal, 50 percent of the total.

Where the Beds Are
CountyFacilitiesLicensed beds
Pinellas657,485
Miami-Dade548,281
Palm Beach546,163
Orange364,559
Duval344,400
Broward334,314
Hillsborough303,943
Sarasota303,086
Market Structure
35%
run by the eight largest groups
65%
run by everyone else

The eight largest operating groups run 245 of Florida's 694 skilled nursing facilities, 35 percent of the state and 37 percent of its licensed beds. The remaining 449 buildings are spread across a long tail of smaller operators and independents.

Operating scale is not the same as real-estate ownership, and in most markets the two are separate. The property behind these portfolios is held across a far larger and more fragmented set of owners, many of them holding a single building outright. That is the layer we resolve, and it is why a market that looks consolidated from the operating side is usually anything but from the ownership side.

Hospital Discharge Demand
170,531
SNF-relevant discharges (minimum)
163
reporting hospitals

Florida's 163 reporting hospitals discharged at least 170,531 traditional-Medicare inpatients in the diagnosis groups that most often need skilled care afterward, in federal fiscal 2024. Sepsis leads at 55,978 discharges. Every one of these patients needed a next setting, and the facilities positioned closest to the highest-volume hospitals see that demand first.

ConditionDischarges (at least)
Sepsis55,978
Heart failure23,845
Urinary tract infection18,082
Pneumonia15,815
Respiratory infection15,018
Kidney failure13,256
Stroke10,989
Hip & femur surgery8,132
COPD5,685
Hip & knee replacement3,731
HospitalSNF-relevant discharges30-day HF readmissions
ADVENTHEALTH ORLANDO · ORLANDO9,21722.8%
SARASOTA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL · SARASOTA4,63721.2%
BAPTIST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER - JACKSONVILLE · JACKSONVILLE4,08220.6%
CLEVELAND CLINIC MARTIN NORTH HOSPITAL · STUART3,59222.0%
NAPLES COMMUNITY HOSPITAL · NAPLES3,37420.7%
ST JOSEPHS HOSPITAL · TAMPA3,23922.3%
ORLANDO HEALTH · ORLANDO3,20223.2%
GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER LEE HEALTH · FORT MYERS2,81122.0%
MARION COMMUNTIY HOSPITAL · OCALA2,69124.1%
LAKELAND REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER · LAKELAND2,66722.8%
Traditional Medicare discharges, federal fiscal 2024, in the diagnosis groups that most often discharge to skilled care. CMS withholds any line under 11 discharges, so every figure is a minimum. Readmission rates: CMS Care Compare, three-year window; n/a means CMS reports too few cases.
Medicare Readmission Penalty
84%
of graded facilities are cut this year
0.9%
average cut across the graded set

569 of Florida's 681 graded skilled nursing facilities (84%) are taking a live Medicare payment cut this federal fiscal year under CMS's SNF Value-Based Purchasing program, which blends readmissions, infections, staffing and turnover into one multiplier and applies it to every Medicare day a building bills. The graded set averages a 0.9% cut across the whole state. A federal number like that says little read alone, which is why we check it against the fuller financial and operational record we hold on every building before it reaches a report: the buildings already under pressure elsewhere are the ones a payment cut actually threatens.

CMS SNF Value-Based Purchasing, FY2026 determination, published February 2026. The multiplier blends readmissions, infections, staffing and turnover and applies to every Medicare day a facility bills; below 1.0 is a live payment cut, not a one-time fine.
Medicare Advantage Penetration
57.2%
of the state's Medicare population is in MA plans

Medicare Advantage now covers 57.2% of Florida's Medicare population, as of April 2026. That is up 2.7 points in three years. Miami-Dade County runs highest in the state at 75.4%. An MA member typically draws fewer skilled-nursing days per admission than traditional Medicare, so the counties at the top of that list are the ones structurally losing SNF days first, whatever the raw discharge count says.

CountyMedicare Advantage share
Miami-Dade County75.4%
Osceola County71.7%
Gadsden County71.4%
Liberty County69.4%
Polk County68.5%
Hernando County67.9%
Pasco County67.3%
Wakulla County65.5%
CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment, county grain, April 2026. An MA member typically draws fewer skilled-nursing days per admission than traditional Medicare, so a rising share is a structural headwind on SNF demand, not a one-quarter blip.
Market Observations

Beds concentrate where the population does: Pinellas County with 65 facilities and 7,485 beds, Miami-Dade County with 54 facilities and 8,281 beds, Palm Beach County with 54 facilities and 6,163 beds.

Legislative & Regulatory Watch
In effect
Federal: Staffing Mandate (Aug 2026)
Operator implication: Staffing floors bind hardest on buildings already below the state average on hours per resident, which is where distressed sales start.
Federal: Reimbursement (Aug 2026)
Operator implication: Payment policy changes reach every building in the state, and the effect on a thin-margin operator arrives within a quarter.
Active / watch
Florida: State Budget (May 2026)
Florida enacted a $114.5B FY2026-27 budget (about $6M below the prior year) in a May 2026 special session; nursing homes received a modest recurring reimbursement increase (House proposed ~$82.4M / Senate ~$68M recurring) even as managed care and hospitals faced reductions. The bulk of the prior year's nursing-home gains were nonrecurring, leaving operators dependent on legislators making the funding permanent.
Operator implication: Budget language sets the reimbursement envelope for the following rate year, so it is the earliest reliable signal of where rates are heading. This one moves in the operator's favour.
On the horizon
Florida: Minimum Wage (Dec 2025)
Under the 2020 voter-approved constitutional amendment, Florida's minimum wage increased to $14.00 on Sept 30, 2025 and is scheduled to reach $15.00 on Sept 30, 2026, then index to inflation annually. Wage-floor increases pressure CNA and entry-level labor costs at Florida SNFs, where many direct-care roles sit near the floor.
Operator implication: Wage floors raise the cost of the largest expense line in the building, and they do not come back down.
Rescinded
Florida: Con Moratorium (Jun 2026)
Florida's 2026 House health package (HB 693, the 'Big Beautiful Healthcare Frontier Act') includes a provision repealing the remaining CON program covering nursing homes; it cleared its first House subcommittee in late January 2026. FHCA is lobbying to strip the CON provision because repeal would remove a key barrier to new SNF beds in an 87%-occupancy market, increasing competitive supply risk for incumbent operator
Federal: Staffing Mandate (Jul 2026)
Amid changes to federal oversight of nursing homes during the Trump administration -- including rescinding the nursing home staffing rule issued by the Biden administration, prioritizing inspections that are triggered by complaints over routine inspections, and suspending the deadline to report detailed ownership information -- this issue brief provides an overview of the nursing home inspection process and the types
If a county-level Florida breakdown, or the ownership and capital-structure detail behind any facility in it, would be useful, a short confidential conversation is the fastest way to get it. There is no cost and no obligation, and the buyer you select covers our fee.
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Sources
  1. CMS Provider Information / Care Compare: facility counts, licensed beds, occupancy, Five-Star ratings, staffing, nurse turnover, fines and Special Focus status, processed 2026-07-01.
  2. CMS Payroll-Based Journal: nurse staffing hours and turnover.
  3. Federal ownership filings: PECOS Form 855A indirect-owner tree and HCRIS cost-report related parties.
  4. County property and mortgage records via the 3G real-estate-ownership resolution layer.
  5. 3G Healthcare Real Estate proprietary warehouse, resolved as of the date shown above.
  6. Florida published Medicaid nursing-facility rate files: 596 rated facilities, effective October 2025. A further 8 facilities are excluded from the rate figures: the published file carries conflicting rates against those buildings on the same effective date, so we report no rate rather than pick one.
  7. State and federal legislative and regulatory tracking via the 3G intelligence scan, with the source for each item linked in that section.
  8. CMS Medicare inpatient claims (fiscal 2024): hospital discharge volumes by diagnosis group, traditional Medicare only; CMS withholds lines under 11 discharges, so volumes are minimums. Readmission rates from CMS Care Compare's three-year measure window.
  9. CMS SNF Value-Based Purchasing facility-level file, FY2026 determination (published February 2026): readmission, infection, staffing and turnover measures rolled into one Medicare payment multiplier per facility.
  10. CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment: Medicare Advantage penetration by county, April 2026.
3G Healthcare Real Estate · Exclusively SNF Sell-Side Advisors · SNFRadar Intelligence
3G Healthcare Real Estate is a brokerage firm specializing exclusively in skilled nursing facility real estate. We do not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.

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