Vermont Skilled Nursing - Market Intelligence

3G Healthcare Real Estate is a sell-side advisory firm working only in skilled nursing facility real estate. This report is the Vermont ownership and operating picture as we track it, drawn from CMS Provider Information, federal ownership filings, county property records, published Medicaid rate files, and our own resolution work.

Every figure below describes the market in aggregate; nothing here is specific to any single owner or property.

Six of every ten patient days Vermont's skilled nursing facilities billed in FY2025 to FY2026 were Medicaid days: 63.4% of the 221,746 patient days on the 8 reports that break days out by payer. The median building ran 88.5% occupancy, with the middle half between 80.8% and 92.6%, on 33 reports that carry it. Patient revenue ran $468 a patient day at the median against $464 of reported operating expense, the cost report's own operating line rather than every cost a building carries. Net margin on the filings themselves was 5.0% at the median. 9 of the 32 reports that carry a bottom line filed a loss, which is 28.1% of them. Vermont files too few reports to rank the state on medicaid share of days, everyone else as a share of days, so those lines carry the count of filings instead of a figure.

Vermont carries a median Medicaid daily rate of $405 across 23 rated facilities, 70 percent of the buildings we track in the state, with the middle half of the market between $358 and $444 a day. The distribution is wide, which is where facility class, acuity, and add-on programs are doing the work rather than a single statewide base rate. Rates are effective October 2026.

Vermont skilled nursing is 67 percent for-profit by facility count: 22 of 33 buildings, averaging 2.76 stars overall and 3.19 on staffing. The balance is 10 non-profit, 1 government. Non-Profit buildings rate highest at 3.40 stars and government lowest at 1.00. Ownership type as CMS records it describes the license holder. The real estate behind it is frequently a different party, and that is the layer we resolve.

Vermont averages 2.91 stars overall across 33 facilities and 2,951 licensed beds. Average occupancy runs 83 percent, which is the number that decides whether a building services its debt. Quality splits at the bottom: 13 facilities (39 percent) rate one or two stars overall, 7 of them one star. Special Focus status or candidacy covers 6 of them. CMS fines on the current record total $2.9M across 24 facilities. Total nurse turnover averages 55.4 percent. Counting any facility that carries at least one of a one- or two-star overall rating, Special Focus status or candidacy, CMS fines on the current record, or a distressed-title flag from county records, 24 of 33 buildings show a distress signal, 73 percent of the total.

The four largest operating groups run 12 of Vermont's 33 skilled nursing facilities, 36 percent of the state and 48 percent of its licensed beds. The remaining 21 buildings are spread across a long tail of smaller operators and independents.

Operating scale is not the same as real-estate ownership, and in most markets the two are separate. The property behind these portfolios is held across a far larger and more fragmented set of owners, many of them holding a single building outright. That is the layer we resolve, and it is why a market that looks consolidated from the operating side is usually anything but from the ownership side.

Vermont's 6 reporting hospitals discharged at least 3,485 traditional-Medicare inpatients in the diagnosis groups that most often need skilled care afterward, in federal fiscal 2024. Sepsis leads at 1,257 discharges. Every one of these patients needed a next setting, and the facilities positioned closest to the highest-volume hospitals see that demand first.

27 of Vermont's 32 graded skilled nursing facilities (84%) are taking a live Medicare payment cut this federal fiscal year under CMS's SNF Value-Based Purchasing program, which blends readmissions, infections, staffing and turnover into one multiplier and applies it to every Medicare day a building bills. The graded set averages a 0.8% cut across the whole state. A federal number like that says little read alone, which is why we check it against the fuller financial and operational record we hold on every building before it reaches a report: the buildings already under pressure elsewhere are the ones a payment cut actually threatens.

Medicare Advantage now covers 12.7% of Vermont's Medicare population, as of April 2026. That is down 17.8 points in three years. Essex County runs highest in the state at 26.9%. An MA member typically draws fewer skilled-nursing days per admission than traditional Medicare, so the counties at the top of that list are the ones structurally losing SNF days first, whatever the raw discharge count says.

Beds concentrate where the population does: Chittenden County with 4 facilities and 507 beds, Bennington County with 4 facilities and 503 beds, Washington County with 4 facilities and 414 beds.

1. CMS Provider Information / Care Compare: facility counts, licensed beds, occupancy, Five-Star ratings, staffing, nurse turnover, fines and Special Focus status, processed 2026-09-01.
2. CMS Payroll-Based Journal: nurse staffing hours and turnover.
3. Federal ownership filings: PECOS Form 855A indirect-owner tree and HCRIS cost-report related parties.
4. County property and mortgage records via the 3G real-estate-ownership resolution layer.
5. 3G Healthcare Real Estate proprietary warehouse, resolved as of the date shown above.
6. Vermont published Medicaid nursing-facility rate files: 23 rated facilities, effective October 2026.
7. State and federal legislative and regulatory tracking via the 3G intelligence scan, with the source for each item linked in that section.
8. CMS Medicare inpatient claims (fiscal 2024): hospital discharge volumes by diagnosis group, traditional Medicare only; CMS withholds lines under 11 discharges, so volumes are minimums. Readmission rates from CMS Care Compare's three-year measure window.
9. CMS SNF Value-Based Purchasing facility-level file, FY2026 determination (published February 2026): readmission, infection, staffing and turnover measures rolled into one Medicare payment multiplier per facility.
10. CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment: Medicare Advantage penetration by county, April 2026.
11. Medicare cost reports (CMS HCRIS), FY2025 to FY2026: 33 filings from 33 Vermont skilled nursing facilities, one full-year report each, loaded 2026-10-06. Occupancy, patient days by payer, patient revenue, operating expense and net income as each facility filed them.