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Texas Skilled Nursing - Market Intelligence

Texas · TX · September 2026

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On the public record: occupancy, staffing, rating, straight off the source.

3G Healthcare Real Estate TX
Texas Skilled Nursing: Market Intelligence Report
September 8, 2026  ·  Exclusively SNF Sell-Side Advisors · Since 2014

3G Healthcare Real Estate is a sell-side advisory firm working only in skilled nursing facility real estate. This report is the Texas ownership and operating picture as we track it, drawn from CMS Provider Information, federal ownership filings, county property records, published Medicaid rate files, and our own resolution work.

Every figure below describes the market in aggregate; nothing here is specific to any single owner or property.

1,177
facilities
133,403
licensed beds
67%
avg occupancy
74%
showing distress
Medicaid Rate Context
Texas does not publish facility-level Medicaid daily rates in a form we have been able to obtain, so there is no per-building rate picture in the public record for this market. That absence is itself the point: without published rates most owners have no reliable way to benchmark their own building, and we maintain the comparison independently.
CMS Ownership Analytics · 1,177 TX SNFs
OwnershipFacilitiesAvg ★Staffing ★Nurse turnover1★ / 5★CMS fines
For-Profit8272.511.7458%236 / 71$43.7M
Government2392.691.8654%68 / 32$10.3M
Non-Profit1113.632.8442%8 / 33$3.0M

Texas skilled nursing is 70 percent for-profit by facility count: 827 of 1,177 buildings, averaging 2.51 stars overall and 1.74 on staffing. The balance is 239 government, 111 non-profit. Non-Profit buildings rate highest at 3.63 stars and for-profit lowest at 2.51. The 239 government-owned buildings are a structural feature worth reading carefully: in most states these are county or hospital-district arrangements in which a public body holds the license while the real estate sits with a private party. Ownership type as CMS records it describes the license holder. The real estate behind it is frequently a different party, and that is the layer we resolve.

Quality, Staffing & Distress Signals
48%
rated one or two stars
36
special focus / candidate

Texas averages 2.65 stars overall across 1,177 facilities and 133,403 licensed beds. Average occupancy runs 67 percent, which is the number that decides whether a building services its debt. Quality splits at the bottom: 568 facilities (48 percent) rate one or two stars overall, 312 of them one star. Special Focus status or candidacy covers 36 of them. CMS fines on the current record total $57.0M across 821 facilities. Total nurse turnover averages 55.3 percent. Counting any facility that carries at least one of a one- or two-star overall rating, Special Focus status or candidacy, CMS fines on the current record, or a distressed-title flag from county records, 872 of 1,177 buildings show a distress signal, 74 percent of the total.

Where the Beds Are
CountyFacilitiesLicensed beds
Harris9711,621
Dallas8110,664
Tarrant718,956
Bexar627,679
Travis283,203
Hidalgo222,772
Collin222,640
El Paso222,585
Market Structure
46%
run by the eight largest groups
54%
run by everyone else

The eight largest operating groups run 545 of Texas's 1,177 skilled nursing facilities, 46 percent of the state and 48 percent of its licensed beds. The remaining 632 buildings are spread across a long tail of smaller operators and independents.

Operating scale is not the same as real-estate ownership, and in most markets the two are separate. The property behind these portfolios is held across a far larger and more fragmented set of owners, many of them holding a single building outright. That is the layer we resolve, and it is why a market that looks consolidated from the operating side is usually anything but from the ownership side.

Hospital Discharge Demand
138,625
SNF-relevant discharges (minimum)
236
reporting hospitals

Texas's 236 reporting hospitals discharged at least 138,625 traditional-Medicare inpatients in the diagnosis groups that most often need skilled care afterward, in federal fiscal 2024. Sepsis leads at 49,963 discharges. Every one of these patients needed a next setting, and the facilities positioned closest to the highest-volume hospitals see that demand first.

ConditionDischarges (at least)
Sepsis49,963
Heart failure20,354
Pneumonia12,149
Urinary tract infection11,901
Kidney failure11,025
Respiratory infection10,211
Stroke10,063
Hip & femur surgery6,578
Hip & knee replacement3,741
COPD2,640
HospitalSNF-relevant discharges30-day HF readmissions
METHODIST HOSPITAL · SAN ANTONIO5,19421.1%
MEMORIAL HERMANN HOSPITAL SYSTEM · HOUSTON3,69321.4%
HOUSTON METHODIST HOSPITAL · HOUSTON2,75118.9%
BAPTIST MEDICAL CENTER · SAN ANTONIO2,57819.8%
CHRISTUS MOTHER FRANCES HOSPITAL · TYLER2,44720.7%
TEXAS HEALTH HARRIS METHODIST FORT WORTH · FORT WORTH2,41920.3%
TEXOMA MEDICAL CENTER · DENISON2,05522.6%
BSA HOSPITAL · AMARILLO2,02519.7%
UNITED REGIONAL HEALTH CARE SYSTEM · WICHITA FALLS1,98023.9%
HENDRICK MEDICAL CENTER · ABILENE1,97719.9%
Traditional Medicare discharges, federal fiscal 2024, in the diagnosis groups that most often discharge to skilled care. CMS withholds any line under 11 discharges, so every figure is a minimum. Readmission rates: CMS Care Compare, three-year window; n/a means CMS reports too few cases.
Medicare Readmission Penalty
91%
of graded facilities are cut this year
1.3%
average cut across the graded set

1,006 of Texas's 1,100 graded skilled nursing facilities (92%) are taking a live Medicare payment cut this federal fiscal year under CMS's SNF Value-Based Purchasing program, which blends readmissions, infections, staffing and turnover into one multiplier and applies it to every Medicare day a building bills. The graded set averages a 1.3% cut across the whole state. A federal number like that says little read alone, which is why we check it against the fuller financial and operational record we hold on every building before it reaches a report: the buildings already under pressure elsewhere are the ones a payment cut actually threatens.

CMS SNF Value-Based Purchasing, FY2026 determination, published February 2026. The multiplier blends readmissions, infections, staffing and turnover and applies to every Medicare day a facility bills; below 1.0 is a live payment cut, not a one-time fine.
Medicare Advantage Penetration
54.9%
of the state's Medicare population is in MA plans

Medicare Advantage now covers 54.9% of Texas's Medicare population, as of April 2026. That is up 3.0 points in three years. Starr County runs highest in the state at 84.2%. An MA member typically draws fewer skilled-nursing days per admission than traditional Medicare, so the counties at the top of that list are the ones structurally losing SNF days first, whatever the raw discharge count says.

CountyMedicare Advantage share
Starr County84.2%
Willacy County78.9%
Hidalgo County77.2%
Maverick County75.9%
Zapata County75.2%
El Paso County74.4%
Zavala County74.4%
Cameron County74.3%
CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment, county grain, April 2026. An MA member typically draws fewer skilled-nursing days per admission than traditional Medicare, so a rising share is a structural headwind on SNF demand, not a one-quarter blip.
Market Observations

Beds concentrate where the population does: Harris County with 97 facilities and 11,621 beds, Dallas County with 81 facilities and 10,664 beds, Tarrant County with 71 facilities and 8,956 beds.

Ownership changed at 2 Texas facilities in the last twelve months. Transactions cluster, and a market that has started moving tends to keep moving for several quarters.

Legislative & Regulatory Watch
In effect
Federal: Staffing Mandate (Aug 2026)
Operator implication: Staffing floors bind hardest on buildings already below the state average on hours per resident, which is where distressed sales start.
Federal: Reimbursement (Aug 2026)
Operator implication: Payment policy changes reach every building in the state, and the effect on a thin-margin operator arrives within a quarter.
Federal: Reimbursement (Jul 2026)
Two recent reports find that Medicare Advantage organizations deny prior authorization requests for long-term care hospital, inpatient rehabilitation hospital, and skilled nursing facility stays at higher rates than requests overall. When these decisions are appealed, they are frequently overturned, particularly for skilled nursing facility stays. This may cause delays for Medicare beneficiaries who are particularly
Operator implication: Payment policy changes reach every building in the state, and the effect on a thin-margin operator arrives within a quarter.
Federal: Reimbursement (Sep 2026)
Operator implication: Payment policy changes reach every building in the state, and the effect on a thin-margin operator arrives within a quarter. This one moves in the operator's favour.
On the horizon
Texas: Survey Enforcement (Apr 2026)
Per QSO-26-03-NH, CMS updated the State Operations Manual to tighten onsite survey timelines and revisit protocols, expand per-instance/per-day civil money penalties (reflected in the CMP Analytic Tool from March 31, 2026), refine Immediate Jeopardy definitions, and publish some penalties on Care Compare starting June 24, 2026. The enforcement intensification raises regulatory and financial exposure for Texas SNF ope
Operator implication: Survey and enforcement changes move the risk of citation and fines, which lenders and buyers price directly.
Rescinded
Federal: Staffing Mandate (Jul 2026)
Amid changes to federal oversight of nursing homes during the Trump administration -- including rescinding the nursing home staffing rule issued by the Biden administration, prioritizing inspections that are triggered by complaints over routine inspections, and suspending the deadline to report detailed ownership information -- this issue brief provides an overview of the nursing home inspection process and the types
If a county-level Texas breakdown, or the ownership and capital-structure detail behind any facility in it, would be useful, a short confidential conversation is the fastest way to get it. There is no cost and no obligation, and the buyer you select covers our fee.
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Sources
  1. CMS Provider Information / Care Compare: facility counts, licensed beds, occupancy, Five-Star ratings, staffing, nurse turnover, fines and Special Focus status, processed 2026-07-01.
  2. CMS Payroll-Based Journal: nurse staffing hours and turnover.
  3. Federal ownership filings: PECOS Form 855A indirect-owner tree and HCRIS cost-report related parties.
  4. County property and mortgage records via the 3G real-estate-ownership resolution layer.
  5. 3G Healthcare Real Estate proprietary warehouse, resolved as of the date shown above.
  6. Texas does not publish facility-level Medicaid rates in an obtainable form; no per-facility rate data is presented for this state.
  7. State and federal legislative and regulatory tracking via the 3G intelligence scan, with the source for each item linked in that section.
  8. CMS Medicare inpatient claims (fiscal 2024): hospital discharge volumes by diagnosis group, traditional Medicare only; CMS withholds lines under 11 discharges, so volumes are minimums. Readmission rates from CMS Care Compare's three-year measure window.
  9. CMS SNF Value-Based Purchasing facility-level file, FY2026 determination (published February 2026): readmission, infection, staffing and turnover measures rolled into one Medicare payment multiplier per facility.
  10. CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment: Medicare Advantage penetration by county, April 2026.
3G Healthcare Real Estate · Exclusively SNF Sell-Side Advisors · SNFRadar Intelligence
3G Healthcare Real Estate is a brokerage firm specializing exclusively in skilled nursing facility real estate. We do not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.

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